Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 34.707827 37.654587 40.899253 44.769433 49.304135 54.506171 61.011077
2025-07-06 29.667193 33.370684 37.720060 43.308119 50.460188 59.558009 72.467315
2025-07-13 28.048984 32.412723 37.796453 45.140445 55.279277 69.468987 92.370695
2025-07-20 25.900225 30.437467 36.213372 44.410201 56.335603 74.241873 106.292284
2025-07-27 25.262838 30.250619 36.829280 46.607469 61.774089 86.719072 138.435689
2025-08-03 24.321906 29.539473 36.610797 47.512935 65.340193 97.102800 173.115294
2025-08-10 23.301513 28.614904 35.972285 47.656438 67.627817 105.821816 211.058485
2025-08-17 22.033001 27.246681 34.565269 46.413124 67.270463 109.171565 237.691443
2025-08-24 20.902236 25.997246 33.230568 45.130489 66.614738 111.695779 264.872249
2025-08-31 20.661758 25.989761 33.725111 46.870970 71.879191 129.574483 382.189592
2025-09-07 19.771304 24.986497 32.629333 45.798786 71.431740 133.203068 442.594482
2025-09-14 19.005473 24.126085 31.697868 44.920360 71.241455 137.535911 523.841851
2025-09-21 17.960568 22.924653 30.346423 43.524300 70.514734 142.560923 670.324058
2025-09-28 16.978701 21.782443 29.039329 42.129840 69.692827 147.720401 903.348062
2025-10-05 16.732576 21.718876 29.433696 43.877264 76.403250 183.822399 3798.053039
2025-10-12 16.052185 20.945968 28.600544 43.181141 77.096345 198.531724 32711.385379
2025-10-19 15.923449 21.012029 29.159011 45.274617 85.617564 262.566638 NaN
2025-10-26 15.595254 20.740388 29.114325 46.136336 91.180574 326.754828 NaN
2025-11-02 15.182037 20.307414 28.751488 46.272855 94.696563 390.498316 NaN
2025-11-09 14.608422 19.587231 27.831918 45.089588 93.692008 413.168217 NaN
2025-11-16 14.069423 18.900777 26.934086 43.867776 92.295110 431.226874 NaN
2025-11-23 13.965876 18.918140 27.300383 45.525445 101.412385 644.700738 NaN
2025-11-30 13.514254 18.340707 26.543059 44.504525 100.502721 696.858706 NaN